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The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
It’s Jobs Week.
Jun 4
•
Claudia Sahm
190
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The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
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49
May 2025
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
May 7
•
Claudia Sahm
75
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Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
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16
April 2025
A crash course in Fed independence
With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a…
Apr 23
•
Claudia Sahm
112
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A crash course in Fed independence
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31
An Interview With Claudia Sahm
Of rules, recessions and more
Published on Paul Krugman
•
Apr 13
March 2025
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation…
Mar 28
•
Claudia Sahm
104
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Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
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10
DOGE recession?
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
Mar 4
•
Claudia Sahm
165
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DOGE recession?
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44
February 2025
Inflation. How worried should we be?
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.
Feb 17
•
Claudia Sahm
110
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Inflation. How worried should we be?
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21
January 2025
The Fed gets to be boring for now
The Fed’s meeting yesterday lived up to expectations: boring.
Jan 30
•
Claudia Sahm
81
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The Fed gets to be boring for now
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8
December 2024
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections isn't living up to its promises
On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a…
Dec 30, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
104
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Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections isn't living up to its promises
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13
Why is growth so good and how do we keep it going?
My interview on Bloomberg this morning started with a trillion-dollar question:
Dec 2, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
79
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Why is growth so good and how do we keep it going?
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10
November 2024
The reckoning with inflation
Many are tying the Democrat losses in the election to high inflation in recent years. There's some truth to that, but it's complicated and it's crucial…
Nov 11, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
119
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The reckoning with inflation
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43
October 2024
Who's afraid of a negative payroll print?
Jobs Day will likely be messier than usual with recent hurricanes and a strike weighing temporarily on payrolls. Even with solid underlying growth the…
Oct 29, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
50
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Who's afraid of a negative payroll print?
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13
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